A study conducted among artificial intelligence (AI) researchers sheds new light on how the industry perceives the development of this technology. The survey results, with participation from 2,778 specialists, indicate a growing belief that progress in AI is accelerating, potentially bringing numerous benefits to humanity. However, there is also serious concern about potential negative consequences and even a threat to the survival of our species.

According to the study's findings, the average risk forecast that advancements in AI will lead to the extinction of humanity or equally serious weakening of the human race is 5%. Significantly, 41.2% to 51.4% of respondents assess the likelihood of such a scenario to be more than 10%. This concern is noticeable, especially when compared to the 38% of respondents who indicated at least a 10% chance of "extremely bad" outcomes, such as the extinction of humanity, in the context of the impact of highly intelligent machines on humanity.

It is interesting to compare the current study's results with those from 2022. There is a noticeable overall shift in expectations regarding the timeline to achieve specific milestones in AI development. For instance, in 2022, it was estimated that artificial intelligence would write a "New York Times" bestseller around 2050, whereas the latest study moves that timeframe to slightly before 2030. Similarly, forecasts for other tasks, such as driving a truck or participating in human-involved marathons, have also shifted to earlier dates.

The research team emphasizes that within just fourteen months since the last study, there has been a significant change in expectations. Participants anticipate that artificial intelligence will reach the level of humanity on average 13 to 48 years earlier, depending on the phrasing of the question. Out of 32 short-term milestones, most are now expected sooner than previously predicted.

Opinions on the expected social consequences of advanced artificial intelligence are divided. Many people attach importance to both extremely positive and extremely negative consequences. Optimistic scenarios reflect AI's potential to revolutionize work and life. Conversely, pessimistic forecasts, especially those related to the risk of extinction, remind us of the high stakes associated with the development and implementation of this technology.

The development of artificial intelligence is inevitable and brings promising possibilities. However, this study indicates the need for a cautious approach and careful risk management. Understanding and monitoring potential threats will be crucial, as well as developing strategies to minimize the negative impacts of technological progress. One thing is certain: the future of artificial intelligence will be of fundamental importance to the shape of our world, and the responsibility for directing its development lies with all of us.